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"Second Machine Age" Chat with Andrew McAfee
   10 years ago
#MITIDEMIT Initiative on the Digital EconomySecond Machine Age - AMA with Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
Dave Vellante
Q5. @amcafee the economics of digital products are software-like where at higher volume, marginal costs go to $0 - is this good news or a “race to zero” for companies?
Dave Vellante
using your concept...does “Winner-take-all Economics” mean there aren’t any “non-zero sum” solutions to the problems you and Erik discussed in your books
Andrew McAfee
It's great news if your company wins the 'winner take all' contest in these industries
Jeff Frick
> Completely different challenge than operating in an industry with inflationary norm.
Steve Chambers
the barrier to entry is also reduced to zero, isn't it?
Steve Chambers
is this what has created uber with no cars, alibaba with no inventory etc
Dave Vellante
Tech has historically been a winner-take-all business? IBM, then Wintel and competitors within their domains (e.g. Cisco, Oracle, Apple) - what's different?
Andrew McAfee
yes, the pattern in tech industries is dominance, then disruption. I think this pattern will spread to more and more industries in 2MA
Bert Latamore
What's different is it isn't just tech now. It is virtually every part of the economy as more and more industries are disrupted.
Dave Vellante
@stevie_chambers not if you count VC dollars that go to marketing stevie!
Andrew McAfee
@BertLatamore Yep. That's because digital gear is a "general purpose tech" - in other words, it diffuses throughout the economy
Paul Gillin
Platforms have been winner-take-all. Not sure I'd generalize to all of tech.
abhishek mehta
great news...as it implies you built a platform...and when that platform solves a problem, the marginal economics become the secret biz model weapon
John Furrier
platforms always win in the end - value from network effects and leverage are great and with software we are seeing a new generation of scale with #opensource
Bert Latamore
@amcafee Exactly, but for many people who aren't the winners this can be personal disaster.
Steve Chambers
what's a "platform"?
Andrew McAfee
Economic growth is inherently NOT zero sum
Rodrigo Gazzaneo
@pgillin I agree with you and @amcafee put that pattern ends with disruption
Andrew McAfee
@stevie_chambers See my colleague Marshall Van Alstyne's work for the best answer to that Q. He's speaking at our London event
Dave Vellante
@amcafee Bill Clinton would be proud of you andy...
Jeff Frick
@amcafee > That's why they call it Value Creation!
Mauro Damo
The technology increase the human productive, so when you develop something really innovative and disrupt, you can create value instead of destroy it
Jennifer Grady
You talk a lot about the importance of education. For adults living in this Second Machine Age and considering going back to school, what should they consider studying?
Andrew McAfee
Things that computers aren't good at: empathy, negotiation, physical skills, problem solving, persuasion...
Ariana Gradow
great question jennifer!
Dave Vellante
@amcafee people thought a few short years ago that computers couldn't drive cars right :-) what changed?
Ariana Gradow
How is the #2MA going to change the workforce? Jobs etc?
Jennifer Grady
So don't compete with the robots and don't try to "learn" them either - go in the complete opposite direction. Interesting!
Andrew McAfee
@dvellante Short answer: faster computers, better sensors, more data, geeks that learn.
Jeff Frick
@amcafee > Context, Historical relevance, moral trade offs, when there is no "right" answer
Jeff Frick
Use the robots to do what you do better.
Dave Vellante
Good answer - when will computers be able to predict the weather accurately :-)
Andrew McAfee
@dvellante Weather is at some level a chaotic and hence unpredictable system.
Jeff Frick
@amcafee > The whole "Schema on Read" vs "Schema on Write" is another flavor of this. Doesn't matter that you don't know what you don't know now, you can iterativly work your way there later.
Sam Kahane
Building off the education topic - Do you feel MIT is doing a good job preparing its students for #2MA ? What could universities do better?
Paul Gillin
@amcafee Although I've heard that modeling traffic is even more complex! :-)
Andrew McAfee
@Sam_Kahane @MIT is doing a great job, but it's got truly impressive raw material (i.e. students) to work with
Jeff Frick
@amcafee > One of the many benefits of keeping a foot in Academe, never ending flow of smart, young, energetic students
Sam Kahane
Too true @amcafee. @MIT is definitely an innovater in the machine era. Thanks
Jeff Frick
It also seems that there are two parallel education paths. STEM to build and manage these marvelous machines, but more of a Humanities perspective/approach as a requirement to apply them
Andrew McAfee
@JeffFrick I certainly don't think the humanities have lost their value in 2MA
Jennifer Grady
The humanities seem to build a level of critical thinking that robots/computers have yet to attain. If this is true, it's important to stress this as many universities slash their humanities departments in response to 2MA.
John Furrier
If I'm a business enterprise or owner what does this disruption mean to me? What should I be thinking about and doing to prepare for a digital future always connected society?
Simon Seagrave
As the speed of technological advance increases, IMHO businesses will need to be looking towards the early technological advancements & decide if, or how, it could disrupt/affect the space in which they operate. If needed, adopt early...
Steve Chambers
that link is hard tho. I see SMEs delegating that decision to partners because they see it as "non core"
Simon Seagrave
eg: national music chain stores & record labels that didn't get in early with a digital distribution model, & have now been left behind - with it being too late for them to catch up & enter the market.
Dave Vellante
@Kiwi_Si it would seem to me the biggest issue organizations face is not the tech but the biz process and skills required to exploit it
John Furrier
I just read @rwang0 book on Disrupting Digital Business and he brings up this notion of peer to peer connectedness (aka mobile cloud data) and it's impact. Very compelling for business people to move fast to rethink their organizations
Rodrigo Gazzaneo
@Kiwi_Si it's like Porter's five forces has a stronger component on substitute products #2MA
Jeff Frick
@dvellante > And Clayton Christensen's Innovator's Dilemma still holds true, hard to innovate and kill today's business model when you've got customers paying the freight.
Paul Prusa
The other item is to not be blindsided by the changes coming. As an example, folks talk about driver less cars disrupting the taxi industry, but auto insurance, car repair, road and construction, the energy industry ALL will be disrupted.
Bert Latamore
@PaulPrusa Don't forget over-the-road trucking. All those truck drivers will be replaced by robotic trucks.
Jeff Frick
> If they could disrupt the taxi industry with mobile phones, google maps, payment gateways, and game mechanics (no mention of cars BTW) everyone should be looking over their shoulder.
Jeff Frick
@vGazza > But now you're not competing with others who are similar, and trying to dominate one of the forces. Now innovators redefine the solution. It's transportation, not a taxi, or an owned car, or even a traditional rental.
Rodrigo Gazzaneo
@JeffFrick agreed. It's the whole model transforming industries. Porter has a recent paper on that.
Jeff Frick
@vGazza > And they're re-organizing the relative importance of attributes where they can win, like convenience, customer service, what my friends say, etc. #GameChanger
Rodrigo Gazzaneo
@JeffFrick it's AirBnb beating hotel chains, Uber beating limo services, etc
Rodrigo Gazzaneo
@JeffFrick great point! Thanks for bringing it up!
Jeff Frick
@vGazza > love to see Porter's latest thinking