openEMC

OpenStack Predictions
2015 OpenStack Predictions: Engage the Experts. Hear from and chat with OpenStack industry leaders
   9 years ago
#openEMCTalking A Ton About KiloExclusive Chat with OpenStack PTLs before the Kilo Project April 30th release.
swardley
2015 OpenStack Predictions? Hmmm ... potters along, creating some noise with a few good examples, finds some niche use cases of value e.g. NFV space, plenty of concerns from end users over success of projects, concerns over governance / differentiation.
swardley
For me, 2016 should be the really interesting year ... private cloud seen as increasingly niche, focus on more on public + public hybrid, concerns of investors in OpenStack space, AWS clearly seen to be running away with it / followed by MSFT then GooG.
swardley
Growth of Cloud Foundry as the defacto standard for PaaS (in much the same way that AWS has become the defacto for IaaS) but this time with a strong open source play around it i.e. co-opting where needed, focused on creating competitive market etc.
Randy Bias
The work at Azure is really quite impressive, particularly on hybrid. I do think the window of opportunity may be closing, but it might be more like 2017 or 2018.
Boris Renski
Cloud Foundry is good, but Docker, Kubernetes, CoreOS are all out to compete with it piggibacking mindshare around container standard
John Furrier
great insight it's the year of "rubber meeting the road"
swardley
Back in 2008, I said 2016 was the key date for when private cloud would head towards niche ... I don't see a reason to change but you may well be right, it could be slightly longer.
James Watters
Its a simple discussion; Cloud Foundry brings you container scheduling, container image management, buildpacks/configuration management for containers, IaaS automation, embedded operating system, high availbility data services..
James Watters
and in Scheduling, containers, config management, IaaS automation, data services there are competitors
Randy Bias
Well, it's not very far away so we're going to see. :)
James Watters
but only Cloud Foundry does all of that, backed by an insanely well funded enterprise focused startup, with an $80M/year R&D budget
Randy Bias
@zer0tweets CloudFoundry != Docker+Kubernetes. Different parts of the stack for the most part. And CF isn't a "container standard"
James Urquhart
Cloud Foundry's challenge will be to avoid becoming contextual and locked down over time. That said, I think @wattersjames is right, there is not yet a competitive project that has put it all together.
swardley
Absolutely ... of course, I take the view that the fortunes of OpenStack could have been very different if the co-opting AWS play had been stuck with at the very beginning rather than being thrown away of the launch evening in pursuit of differentiation.
swardley
By now, I would have hoped for a mass of extremely large AWS clones powered by OpenStack and competing in the public market with syntactic and semantic interop over key APIs ... alas, not the case.
Randy Bias
@furrier Stu is off-base. Hyperconvergence is a niche product. Blog posting out after this crowdchat to debunk that myth. It's CI + HCI for certain workloads. Hyperconverged won't displace standard converged.
Boris Renski
@randybias CF is not a container standard, yes. It is container orchestrator and manager originally build for a container standard that has been overtaken by Docker.
swardley
So, I feel the differentiation play has led to the collective prisoner dilemma that has trapped OpenStack in a private space requiring it to focus on niche ... a pity, a lot of great talent but IMHO misguided play at the beginning.
Boris Renski
CF owns the management APIs, Docker owns the container standard and is making a push up the stack
Randy Bias
@zer0tweets No it's not. Containers are tangential to it's purpose. CF is more like Java Containers 2.0 (weblogic/websphere) in a modern cloud world.
Gabriel Chapman
@randybias it will for specific scale, ie sub 1000 workloads/VM's above that its all RackScale
swardley
On the upside, Cloud Foundry has been able to learn from this and hopefully we will finally get that competitive market based upon an open source reference model ... just at the PaaS level of the stack.
Jesse Proudman
I agree on the Private Cloud focus and we've discussed about this on Twitter before. The reality is that there's still Billions of dollars to be made in niche markets. Niche != The Death of OpenStack.
Randy Bias
@zer0tweets Containers are a simple technology tool that enable PaaS. Container orchestration is another layer of that. But container orchestration isn't going to create abstraction layers around data storage, messaging, etc.
Jesse Proudman
@zer0tweets Cloud Foundry has positioned itself as a the defacto API for those who are seeking application portability amongst many disparate IaaS technologies (AWS, GCE, OpenStack, VMware, etc...). It's challenge will be service catalog development.
Gabriel Chapman
@randybias @zer0tweets would you say that the majority of workloads are container friendly/supported?
...
my prediction is that companies will do Openstack like distros and foundation will be reduced to rubber stamp.
Randy Bias
PaaS is a "load your code and go" system. The developer points at a repo, loads a commit, and the code runs. It's an app runtime for modern cloud use cases. Docker+Kubernetes does not replace that. In fact, it's likely to be integrated.
Alex Barreto
Containerization is a principal driver for abstraction of storage, messaging, compute
Alex Barreto
Experience has shown that many such layers, in addition to compute workloads, are container ready
Alex Barreto
Containerization is a significant step toward PaaS adoption
Chris Swan
@shakamunyi and that abstraction seems to be happening in the Docker nascent extension space as otherwise each element was treading on the toes of others - hence Powerstrip for wrapping the API for prototyping
James Watters
and of all of these very small startups mentioned, only Cloud Foundry has record setting software while maintaining a very open standard: http://www.theregist...
James Watters
[record setting revenue that is]
John Furrier
James share those numbers again
swardley
@blueboxjesse : Oh, I don't disagree that there are valuable niches e.g. Telco / Network Equipment Providers / NFV space has potential. Just that the overall potential of OpenStack (a competitive market of AWS clones) was far greater but never realised.
Mike Foley
Prediction:Security finds out what is going on. #Panic. They get steamrolled. Breach happens. More panic. #profit?
swardley
@shakamunyi : containerization is an extremely useful subsystem of PaaS, it should be an invisible underlying component ... it's the wrong place to focus on.
Alex Barreto
it's an enabler - addressed and continues to address many issues at the IaaS, PaaS and application sphere
Alex Barreto
Focus should always originate from an app-centic perspective
Alex Barreto
Containerization, like IaaS before it, will need focus, then it can become an invisible underlying component
John Furrier
If you could pick your favorite, what OpenStack distributor would hit the top of your list?
Jesse Proudman
Blue Box Cloud. ;)
John Zannos
Ubuntu ;)... but I have a horse in that race - all kidding aside it is the most used one per the user studyhttp://superuser.openstack.org/articles/openstack-user-survey-insights-november-2014
Chris Swan
does anybody really have the time and resources to try out more than a couple? Or do we just pick the community people we like and by inference the firms they work for?
Randy Bias
Cloudscaling. Still the best by a long shot. :)
John Zannos
I believe over time we will stabilize to a handful
Alex Barreto
Red Hat ;) - but my natural bias aside, what end customers should look for is an OpenStack solution that is completely open with no proprietary extensions
Alex Barreto
...avoids customizations that lead to non-standard deployments, and one that has a broad ecosystem of hardware and software solutions from which to choose
Kenneth Hui @rubrikInc HQ
Where does everyone think VMware Integrated OpenStack fits into this mix?
Nicole Sweeney
@cpswan Great point - so perhaps the question is 'What do customers look for when selecting a distributor'? Is it cost, speed, nepotism?
Jesse Proudman
I still think this is the wrong question though. Distributions are the method for end users to consume OpenStack. It needs to be consumed as a service for the vast majority of deployments.
Tyler Britten
@shakamunyi Disagree. Pushing customers away from anything proprietary is a recipe for failure for many shops. They just need to go into it with eyes wide open.
Randy Bias
@shakamunyi Probably not possible if you need real scale and a production environment: http://cloudscaling....
John Zannos
Alex I agree the standard will be a broad ecosystem, and the ability to supply and LTS model that allows for more production stability
Ashok Bhojwani
Interested to know why one would pick one distribution vs the other. Has anyone built the pros and cons for different distribution vendors?
Alex Barreto
ecosystem ecosystem ecosystem
Jesse Proudman
@blueboxjesse I meant to say "Distributions are the wrong method..." or my favorite line: "Distributions are doing it wrong."
John Zannos
pro and cons are somewhat tied to use case but I agree ecosystem is the key driver.
Alex Barreto
with multiple deployments in hybrid clouds, openstack distributions are clearly driving the enterprise value proposition
Randy Bias
@shakamunyi Also the term proprietary gets abused. It doesn't mean "closed" source. It means ownership. And technically a company like RedHat "owns" something like Ceph. So Ceph is "proprietary". https://www.google.c...;
Alex Barreto
@randybias Intersting. Amazon owns EC2 APIs, S3 APIs. So Amazon is proprietary. Why advocate a proprietary API for anything?
Chris Swan
scale, hardware choice, existing vendor/distro relationships - these all shape the envelope - I doubt anybody is doing an across the piste bake off
Jesse Proudman
@hui_kenneth From my perspective, VMware's OpenStack pricing makes it largely a non-starter.
Boris Renski
@hui_kenneth I view VMware Integrated OpenStack as a very serious contender
Gatuus
Ubuntu's is the most stable and polished in my experience
Randy Bias
@shakamunyi For interoperability. OpenStack has got no chance in public cloud.
Boris Renski
@hui_kenneth VMware Integrated OpenStack has a stable networking story via solid integration with NSX, something many other distro's lack
Alex Barreto
@randybias OpenStack already is the true interoperability driver for cloud based on enterprise adoption.
Michael Krumpe
@randybias I'm not sure I understand what you mena that it has no chance in public cloud. It already is in public cloud.
Randy Bias
@shakamunyi Right now OpenStack doesn't do anything for interoperability. Here's my classic piece on this: http://www.slideshar...
Randy Bias
@Krumpe Not at any scale. Azure, AWS, and even GOOG dwarf the OpenStack public clouds. Together they have 80-90% market share. That wont' change easily.
Randy Bias
@Krumpe Not only that, but OpenStack public clouds simply don't have the structural advantages and economies of scale that the hyperscale guys have.
Randy Bias
@Krumpe Public cloud is a development race: http://www.cloudscal...
Jesse Proudman
OpenStack has no business playing in the Public Cloud space. Agree w/ Randy on this one.
Vibhu
@blueboxjesse Jesse, what's the main reason? Can't compete with AWS, Azure, Goog?
Jesse Proudman
@bvibhu The engineering efforts that go into the hyperscale architectures required for public cloud dwarf the efforts that go into OpenStack.
Alex Barreto
OpenStack is interoperability for Public and Private Clouds
Alex Barreto
Only one Public Cloud is positioned beyond SMBs.
Alex Barreto
And the number of development resources on OpenStack across the community dwarfs pure-public-play cloud
Jesse Proudman
@shakamunyi Disagree with that statement. Cloud Foundry or CMP like Scalr provider interoperability. OpenStack simply provides the best foundation for Private Clouds.
Alex Barreto
@blueboxjesse disagree. OpenStack provides IaaS level interop. PaaS like OpenShift provides DevOps level interop. CMP like CloudForms provides management level interop
Jesse Proudman
@shakamunyi OpenStack provides IaaS interop between existing OpenStack instances, but certainly not amongst public cloud providers.
Ashok Bhojwani
All Good points here, however if you view from a Customer's standpoint, other than than their use cases, what will help them to pick the right ecosystem/distribution of OpenStack? Too difficult to try out different POC's.
swardley
: pick your favourite OpenStack distro ... gosh, tough ... there's so many incompatible versions to choose from ... oh wait, that's the problem.